CAT Risk Management & Modelling Agenda

08:30

08:50

CAT RISK – LOOKING TOWARDS THE FUTURE

09:00

  • Size of economic and industry loss of Mexico Earthquake, US Hurricane, Caribbean Hurricane and California Wildfires – how would such a series of events play out in this region?
  • Soft market impact to risk management
  • Evolution of the risk within catastrophe model – where did it perform well and poorly?
  • Modelling considerations going forward

OPEN MODELS – THE PATH TO COMMUNITY COLLABORATION 

09:30

  • Understanding the benefits of open loss modelling platforms 
  • Development of an ecosystem and the spirit of collaboration  
  • Use of open models for risk management in insurance and beyond 

10:00

10:30

  • Implementing a model on an open framework 
  • Technical benefits of a structured approach 
  • Real life demo 

11:00

  • Recent advances in machine learning can help us make better use of global climate data when developing cat models 
  • This in turns allows better representation of risk correlation at the global scale in cat models 
  • It also offers some potential to quantify seasonal risk trends, and can push cat models beyond the current static view of risk they propose 

11:30

  • Open models and platforms in use 
  • Challenges faced and solutions found 
  • The future of open modelling 

12:10

AUSTRALIA CYCLONE RISK MODELLING 

01:10

  • Each modeller to give a snapshot of their Australia Cyclone model

01:50

  • Comparing outcomes from the scenarios and its impact on risk management 
  • Interpreting modelled losses from actual events, and factors driving output discrepancies  
  • What to do when models disagree and what this means for risk-based decision making 

02:50

FLOOD RISK MODELLING 

03:20

  • Managing flood risk in Australia
  • Should flood still be considered and viewed a secondary peril of cyclone?
  • How have available models performed? What more can be done?
  • Overcoming challenges in exposure data resolution
  • What are the key challenges faced by developers?

04:10

04:20

08:30

08:50

UNRAVELLING EARTHQUAKE RISK IN AUSTRALASIA 

09:00

  • Overview of Geoscience Australia’s updated earthquake model 
  • Overcoming uncertainties and challenges in managing this multiperil destruction
  • Opportunities for risk reduction

09:20

  • Spatially varying reduction in earthquake frequencies and ground motion hazard level
  • Spatially varying reduction in earthquake losses
  • Australia wide, revised residential AAL and 200-year ARI loss showing substantial reductions

09:40

  • What are the impacts for re/insurers?
  • Challenges and opportunities in re/insurance going forward 
  • Shared Q&A 

10:10

  • Use of models – Broadening use cases
  • Managing interconnected risks 
  • Improved technology & what it means for the (re)insurance industry

10:30

CAT RISK PRICING  

11:00

  • Traditional applications of claims data for pricing  
  • The climate change signals currently indicated by the insurance data 
  • The use of alternative data sources and the value of attribution studies 

11:30

  • Examples of initiatives adopted by insurers 
  • Metrics demonstrating how RACQ’s policyholders have responded 
  • Real world challenges in delivering on the ideal world 

BUSHFIRE RISK MANAGEMENT & MODELLING 

12:00

  • Evolution of the modelled risk 
  • Methodologies for risk assessment 
  • How did the models fare against recent events? 
  • Pricing and exposure management using the model

12:50

CAT MANAGEMENT – EVOLUTION OF RISKS 

01:50

  • What do we know about the risk of future catastrophic climate events?
  • What do we know about the risk of events you should care about?
  • Can we close the knowledge gap?

02:10

  • Climate change – a growing issue for insurers and regulators
  • Challenges of modelling changing hazards and risk
  • Consequences for insurers managing climate risk

02:30

  • Current approach and insurance penetration in Australia 
  • Methodologies for risk assessment 
  • Preparing for the future of the cyber insurance market 

03:10

CAT RISK 2025

03:30

  • Update on ILS Markets
  • Using networks to understand capital market risk
  • Outlook and implications for the reinsurance value chain
  • Economics of reinsurance hedging under economic and insurance market stress
  • Increasing opportunities for insurers, reinsurers and ILS funds

04:00

04:40

04:50